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October 25, 2006

Ford Motors Inc. (F)

I am convinced Ford has hit bottom and on its way up from here.  Yes, the company is still bleeding in red ink.  In fact, Ford just posted $6 Billion lost in the third quarter of 2006.  Yes, that’s 6 Billion!  Interestingly, despite recent downgrades, the stock has remained at current level, around $8.50 per share.  This usually means the stock has hit bottom.

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Uncle Ben kept it at 5.25%

The FOMC decided to hold interested rate at 5.25% again.  This move indicates the economy is holding steady and inflation remains tamed.  The fact that the housing slow down now is in full effect will keep the FOMC increasing.  In fact, now that housing has slowed, there is a chance the FOMC might need to actually cut rates to keep the economy humming along.  For the remainder of the year, I am expecting the FOMC to keep the interest rate at the current level.  In 2007, if the housing market doesn’t stop its free fall, there will be pressure to bring down the borrowing rates to 5.0%.

October 15, 2006

Be Skeptical of Analyst Forecast

One of the best ways to guard your portfolio against a market crash is by maintaining a healthy level of skepticism. Wall Street isn't a charity; it's a bunch of businesses focused on making money for themselves. Helping small investors make a profit is Item No. 382 on the list of Wall Street priorities, falling immediately below ensuring that the new assistant knows exactly the right amount of sugar to put in the morning coffee.

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October 13, 2006

Salesforce.com (CRM) Stock Evaluation

The state of the company’s financial growth is strong. Since the company went public in 2004, Salesforce.com has been able to consistently grow its top and bottom line. For simplification, the Total Revenue and Net Income are as follows (all numbers are in thousands):

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October 06, 2006

Challenges Facing Information Technology

Globalization can be viewed as the broad movement among economies and societies that is knitting the world closer together which is affecting capital markets, technology, and the exchange of information (Wikipedia.com). These movements have brought about the emergence of China and India as a major economic player.  This economic shift has been compared to the industrial revolution witnessed in the United States at the turn of the 20th century.  These two major players are expected to yield even more influences in the economy of the future. According to “Mapping the Global Future” released by the National Intelligence Council (NIC) in 2004, China and India will no doubt be an economic power in the next 15 years if current growth rate continues without disruption (NIC, 2004).

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October 03, 2006

From Russia With Love

The history of Russia goes as far back to the 12th Century where the country gained its independence from the Mongol. For the purpose of this paper, we’ll concentrate on the modern history, which is from 1917 to present day.  In 1917, the country became a republic after the Russian Revolution. The Communist party, headed by Vladimir Lenin came to power and established a foundation for what will eventually became the Union of Soviet Socialist Republic (USSR). 

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October 02, 2006

iBooyah Perspective; week of October 2, 2006

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average will likely remain in a holding pattern this week as investors try to digest the latest news.  Manufacturing slowed amid a weak housing market and slumping auto sales.  Non-residential housing construction continued to slide but was offset by strength in office buildings and other commercial projects. 

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Vonage (VG) the dog!

I wont' waste too much time analyzing Vonage (VG) as it is not worth the time.  In short, Vonage is bleeding in red ink and is trading between 6-7 bucks per share . They went public at $17/share and has been going down since. This was about 3 months ago. Vonage is spending huge amount of money advertising as you might have seen their commercials. The customer acquistion cost is very high. However, the margin is quite low. For Vonage to make money, they'll need to acquire a lot more customers. Meanwhile, Voice over IP (VOIP) such as Skype is giving their services away for free (limited time offer). Vonage will likely run out of capital and probably get acquired if they are lucky. I just don't see how this company can become profitable in the near term. If you feel the need to waste your money, go to Las  Vegas for the weekend and spend it there instead.  You'll at least get some satisfaction from losing your money.

Netflix (NFLX) continues to surprise

    Netflix continues to surprise the market as they continue to find ways of luring new subscribers.  Despite concerns over Blockbuster eating their lunch, which caused Netflix to lower the subscription prices, they continue to grow.  At the same time, Blockbuster continues to lag behind.  Their business model is simple and sound.  Rent as much movie as you want; keep it as long as you want for a monthly fee.  The company is also moving into film download, which is the next evolution in this space.  In terms of their stock, they're currently trading with a P/E ratio of 25, which is a little expensive.  However, their closest competitor is Blockbuster, which is losing money.  Therefore, it is a little difficult to gauge their true value.  At around $23/share, we believed it is a worthwhile investment with potential to move upward within the next few weeks as the third quarter comes to a close.

Dell has hit bottom

DELL:  Dell has run into several unfortunate events in recent months.  First, the company warned that it will be reporting less than expected due to slow PC sales and fierce competition, which resulted in increased promotion, thus lowering the profit margin. This took the stock down from $26 to $22.  About a month ago, Dell also announced a recall of hundreds of thousand laptop batteries, which took the stock down a couple more points.  Since then, the stock has been trading in the $21 - $23 dollar range.  It is our view the stock has hit bottom and poised to move upward from here.  All the negative sentiment has already been built into the stock.  Moreover, Dell is still the number one PC manufacturer.  Once the company works out the kinks and Microsoft releases its new Operating Systems, this stock should also benefit.